As with any forecast, you can only make the best guess based on trends and context. Let’s face it – no one saw a pandemic coming three years ago or war this year.

The pandemic’s lockdowns, quarantines, and self-isolations sent us home and created ghost towns in our CBDs. The pandemic caused a seismic shift in corporate culture, attitudes and technological barriers to working from home.

We have now had a taste of remote work by working from home, no commuting for two hours each day. Instead, we have grown accustomed to converting the dining room table into our office, hanging out washing between emails, scheduling Zoom calls between family members, having your kids walk in on your important Zoom meeting with a prospective client, and isolation from co-workers and the office water cooler.

Based on our recent experience, the benefits and limitations of working from home are clearer.

With most of our population vaccinated and the pandemic’s peak passed, what is the future for our office premises?

While we’re now slowly returning to our workplaces (much to the relief of our inner-city cafes, bars and restaurants), what will be the ‘new normal’ in our office time vs working from home split?

A 2020 McKinsey survey of 800 global corporate executives found that 38% expect their remote employees to work two or more days away from the office after the pandemic, compared to 22% pre-pandemic.

The survey response suggests a hybrid model of in-office work combined with remote work.

Working from home will likely continue but at reduced intensity.

The finance, management, professional services and information sectors have the highest potential for remote work via working from home. These sectors are also the biggest inhibitors of office space.

A recent survey of 248 American chief operating officers found that one-third plan to reduce office space as their leases expire.

So, what is going to happen to office premises post-pandemic? Will demand flatten or decline, or will vacancy rates in our CBDs increase? What will happen to rent charges and will the demand for offices with good ventilation go up?

Add to the mix the enormous increase in construction costs, supply chain constraints (aka the lack of gib) and a return to an inflationary period, at least until 2023 (according to Jones Lang LaSalle). Additionally, the reflexive increase in interest rates may result in new office space after those already in the pipeline have slowed up or shelved.

The post-pandemic impact on property is not confined to the office sector alone.

The trend in remote work and working from home will flow through to our CBD cafes, restaurants, bars, shops and service businesses that cater to office workers as their absence translates into reduced spending.

Our residential sector will also suffer as remote work and working from home will allow us to sever the umbilical cord to the office and live further afield in more affordable lifestyle locations.

Suburban cafes, restaurants and shops closer to where we live and now work will likely see an uplift in demand and spending.

As with any trend, the question remains, how long will it take before we can measure its true impact? Furthermore, what other trends will emerge as a result? Business and property exist as an ecosystem. For this ecosystem to survive and thrive, it will need to fashion a robust response. Perhaps we are on the cusp of an evolution that will reshape these sectors forever. Only time will tell.